Přehled trhů
Summer Calm and Why Investors Should Ignore Holiday-Season Swings
Key takeaways
- Summer months tend to see lower trading volumes, so swings are sharper but barely meaningful.
- Seasonal patterns ("sell in May") are not a reliable trading guide.
- The best summer strategy is to do nothing and let the standing order run.
- A holiday is the ideal time to feel no urge to check the portfolio.
- Discipline and composure do more for your return than any seasonal manoeuvre.
In this monthly column, we pick one theme worth keeping in mind. In summer the choice is easy: don't think about your portfolio at all. Let us explain why holiday-season swings are a poor reason to act.
Summer = thin volumes
During holidays, fewer people are trading (even major fund managers are on vacation), so volumes are lower. The result: prices can move more sharply even on smaller prompts. These summer swings look dramatic, but they carry little informational content — they reflect an empty exchange floor more than any fundamental change.
Seasonal superstitions
You may have heard "sell in May and go away." Seasonal patterns are interesting historical statistics, but an unreliable guide — those who trade on them typically pay more in taxes, fees, and missed upside than they save. Market timing doesn't work by the calendar either.
Why looking less often means earning more
The more often you check the portfolio, the more red days you see (statistically almost half of days in the short run) and the greater the temptation to intervene. Less monitoring = fewer impulsive mistakes = higher return. Summer is a great opportunity to practise this habit.
What to take from this month
- Ignore holiday-season swings — they are thin volumes, not a signal.
- Let the regular contribution run and don't chase seasonal myths.
- Enjoy your time off; your portfolio doesn't need you watching it.
How a long horizon doesn't worry about individual months is beautifully illustrated by the growth projection.
FAQ
Why are summer market swings sharper?
During holidays fewer participants are trading, so volumes are lower and prices can move more sharply on smaller prompts. These swings look dramatic but carry little informational content — they reflect an empty exchange floor more than any fundamental change.
Does the "sell in May" rule work?
Not as a reliable guide. Seasonal patterns are interesting statistics, but trading on them typically costs more in taxes, fees, and missed upside than it saves. Market timing doesn't work by the calendar either.
What should I do with my portfolio in summer?
Ideally, nothing. Check that your standing order is running and enjoy your holiday. The best summer strategy is to let the portfolio work without you and not worry about holiday-season swings that mean nothing anyway.
Why does looking at your portfolio less often help the return?
Because the more often you check, the more red days you see in the short term, and the greater the temptation to intervene. Less monitoring means fewer impulsive mistakes, and therefore a higher long-term return. Summer is a good time to practise that composure.